How does this market resolve, and does the claim meet its rules?
Before you trade, check that a market's rules say what proof decides it. After close, check a resolution or settlement claim against those rules and the named sources, condition by condition, and get a record anyone can verify.
Rule check
Does the rule name the source that decides the market, who supplies it, what happens if that source is silent, and the deadline? Gaps are flagged before you put size on.
Check a market's rulesSettlement record
A Yes or No claim checked against each condition in the rules and the evidence the rules name. Findings explained, gaps identified, a signed record issued.
Get a settlement recordMonitor
What filed event-contract terms actually say about where results come from and what happens when the source fails. Updated monthly.
Read the monitorWho it is for
Funds, market makers and large traders
Check a market's rules before taking a position, and keep a record if a resolution goes the wrong way.
Prop-trading challenge firms
Firms that settle their traders' payouts on market outcomes: check rules before listing a market, and keep a record when a payout is contested.
Exchange compliance teams
Newer CFTC-registered exchanges: check contract terms before listing and document how a settlement met them.
Researchers and journalists
The monitor and the worked cases are public and citable.
What it finds
Four disputed Polymarket markets, restated as they stood when the claim was made. In one, the market's vote applied a deadline rule its contract did not contain. In another, the records conflicted and the check held the point for a person rather than force an answer. See the cases →
A report may not be presented as a neutral resolution of a market that is open to dispute or in a vote. It is an independent assessment of the claim against the rules.